DB#4 MM250

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 I need a initial post + 2 responses to classmates (see attached)

Applications of Probability

In this unit, you explored how to interpret different types of probability experiments as well as how to determine probabilities in a given context. One key way probability can be used in professional settings is by collecting data from a sample of employees and observing the relative frequency (i.e., empirical probability) of some event of interest to you and your organization or industry. For example, suppose you surveyed a group of 200 IT professionals at your company and found that there were 80 with only basic skills in coding. You could then determine the probability that a random IT professional who responded to your survey could potentially benefit from professional development in this area.

Post 1: Initial Response

Suppose you and your classmates are surveying some of the employees working at your company. The company has over 10,000 employees, so you each collect information from a sample of 500 employees to get some insight into how vulnerable the company may be to external threats, or hacks, to the computers used by employees. You will use your survey results along with probability to assess the companies’ risk. Please include the following information:

  1. Copy and paste your empirical data table. This table will be provided by your instructor.
  2. Compute and clearly state the probability (as a decimal and percentage) for each of the following:
    • A company employee has not run a computer security scan in the past 60 days.
    • A company employee has not installed the latest patches to the operating system on their computer.
    • A company employee has not installed the latest patches to the operating system on their computer and has run a computer security scan in the past 60 days.
    • A company employee has installed the latest patches to the operating system on their computer and has not run a computer security scan in the past 60 days.
  3. Express the likelihood of a security breach at your company — high, moderate, or low — based upon insight you gained from computing probabilities from the survey results. In one or two sentences, discuss how this analysis of empirical probability may be beneficial to you and your company.

View Unit 4 Discussion Post 1 example.

Post 2: Reply to a Classmate

According to reports about the latest patches to the operating system, users may be particularly vulnerable to malware if they have not installed the patches. You decide to look into one of your team members’ results for further evidence of how at risk the company may be.

Review a classmate’s initial response. Using your classmate’s empirical data table, compute and clearly state the probability a company employee has not installed the latest patches to the operating system on their computer, given the employee has not run a computer security scan in the past 60 days. (Note, this is known as a conditional probability.) Round to 4 decimal points. In one or two sentences, discuss how this added analysis of empirical probability may offer beneficial insight to you and your company regarding risk.

View Unit 4 Discussion Post 2 example.

Post 3: Reply to Another Classmate

Review a different classmate’s discussion thread. Consider the probabilities presented in the other posts and express what you believe to be a reasonable overall assessment of the likelihood of a security breach at your company — high, moderate, or low. Given your assessment, describe in two to three sentences some actions that may be taken at the company to minimize the threat level and maintain a low likelihood of security breach once a reasonable level is achieved.

Post 1)

1)  Here is my Data:

Christopher Vigliotti

Employee has run a computer security scan in the past 60 days.

Employee has NOT run a computer security scan in the past 60 days.

Total

Employee has installed the latest patches to the operating system on their computer.

86

45

131

Employee has NOT installed the latest patches to the operating system on their computer.

355

14

369

Total

441

59

500

2)  P (Has NOT run security scan) = 59/500 = 0.118 = 11.8%

     P (Has NOT installed the latest patches) = 369/500 = 0.738 = 73.8%

     P (Has NOT installed the latest patches but has run security scan) = 355/500 = 0.71 = 71%

     P (Has installed the latest patches but has NOT run security scan) = 45/500 = 0.09 = 9%

3)  Based on the analysis of this sample of employees, i would say that the likelihood of a computer breach is high.  Almost 75% of the employees have not installed the latest patches to their systems.  Coming from my cybersecurity classes, this is one of the #1 contributors to security incidents such as data breaches.  The latest patches include security fixes for issues found in the time since the last patches have been released.  Another thing that can be interpreted from the data is that they company and employees are very good about running security scans.  This will help the security situation, but without the proper patches to fix the security holes, our company is ripe for a data breach.  

Post 2)

1. Here is my data:

 

Employee has run a computer security scan in the past 60 days.

Employee has NOT run a computer security scan in the past 60 days.

Total

Employee has installed the latest patches to the operating system on their computer.

33

382

415

Employee has NOT installed the latest patches to the operating system on their computer.

18

67

85

Total

51

449

500

 

2. P (has NOT run security scan) = 449/500 = 0.898 = 89.8%

P (has NOT installed latest patches) = 85/500 = 0.17 = 17%

P (has NOT installed the latest patches but has run security scan) = 18/500 = 0.036 = 3.6%

P (has installed the latest patches but has NOT run security scan) = 382/500 = 0.764 = 76.4%

Based on an analysis of my sample of 500 employees, I would say that the likelihood of a computer breach is moderate going into high. You can see that over 75% of the employees have NOT run a security scan. The number one method to prevent security breaches is to regularly perform security scans, which makes those numbers concerning. Furthermore, you can see that only less than 20% of the employees HAVEN’T installed the latest patches of the operating system, which means that more than 75% HAVE installed the latest patches to the operating system. This too contributes greatly towards a security breach and action should be taken to fix this.

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