reliability and decision theory 1
Are you pressed for time and haven’t started working on your assignment yet? Would you like to buy an assignment? Use our custom writing services for better grades. Even if your deadline is approaching fast, our writers can handle your task right when you need it. Our writers will complete your order from scratch and make sure it’s completely unique.
Order a Similar Paper Order a Different Paper
Decision Tree (100 points)
The supplement to Chapter 5 in your textbook describes and develops several decision trees. In a 4-5 page paper, not including the cover and reference pages, develop a decision tree for the case described. Explain the process of developing a decision tree; draw the decision tree (include the decision tree in an appendix showing chance nodes, probabilities, outcomes, expected values, and net expected value); and defend your final decision based on your decision tree.
Case for consideration—An operations manager for a cereal producer is faced with a choice of:
- A large-scale investment (A) to purchase a new cooker which could produce a substantial pay-off in terms of increased revenue net of costs but requires an investment of 3,750,000 Saudi Riyal. After extensive market research it is thought that there is a 40% chance that a pay-off of 9,375,000 Saudi Riyal will be realized, but there is a 60% chance that it will be only 3,000,000 Saudi Riyal.
- A smaller scale project (B) to refurbish an existing cooker. At 1,875,000 Saudi Riyal, this option is less costly but produces a lower pay-off. Again, extensive research data suggests a 30% chance of a gain of 3,750,000 Saudi Riyal but a 70% chance of it being only 1,875,000 Saudi Riyal.
- Continuing the present operation without change (C) which cost nothing, but produces no pay-off.
Direction:
Read Chapter 5 in textbook describes and develops several decision trees ( I attach it )
Be sure to use at least two scholarly, peer-reviewed references in supporting your answer. Current sources are those published within the most recent five-year period, and scholarly sources are those from peer-reviewed journals.
Make certain for each listed reference that you have at least one supporting citation in the body of your content. Your reference page is always the last page of the submission where all individual references get listed. The Saudi Digital Library is a good resource to search for these references. Submit your presentation into the Assignment Dropbox.
It is strongly encouraged that you submit all assignments into the TurnItIn Originality Check prior to submitting them to your instructor for grading. If you are unsure how to submit an assignment into the Originality Check tool, review the TurnItIn Originality Check – Student Guide for step-by-step instructions.
4-5 page paper and APA Style
Do you need help with this or a different assignment? Even when your task is complicated and the deadline is in less than 2 days, you still have every chance to get a good grade for it. How? By completing the order form, you will get the finest custom-written assignment at an affordable price. We also deliver a number of services for free (e.g., revisions, editing, checking the text for authenticity). Use our paper writing service to receive effective help with your homework.
Order a Similar Paper
Order a Different Paper
Do you need help with this or a different assignment? Even when your task is complicated and the deadline is in less than 2 days, you still have every chance to get a good grade for it. How? By completing the order form, you will get the finest custom-written assignment at an affordable price. We also deliver a number of services for free (e.g., revisions, editing, checking the text for authenticity). Use our paper writing service to receive effective help with your homework.
Order a Similar Paper Order a Different Paper
