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The Excel file attached. The assignment needs to be similar and add the parts that posted in the question. ( keep in your mind that the data are different)
you are going to run a Monte Carlo Simulation treating at least one input variable as a “random Variable” (that is, as a probability distribution).You will define this Random Variable using the Classical Method defined in Week 10 lecture.You will then run the MCS, and discuss the resulting “S-Curve”.This assignment is delineated in 3 parts
Part 1: you will select a system that we work with in a previous week, either
- Net Present Value
- Cost Benefit Analysis
- Listeria poisoning
- Individual Risk of Listeria Poisoning (assuming you pick this problem)
- Prevalence (assuming you pick the Listeria Poisoning problem)
- Create the “questions” for your judges, with at least 5 seed variables
- Your judges do not need to be factual “expert”, but try to elicit reasonably well informed responses based on the question you choose to ask
- Elicit the information from you judges for the “main question” and “seed variables”
- Calculate the weighted empirical cumulative distribution for the ‘main question’
- Using the weighted empirical cumulative distribution as your input variable, run the MCS (with the other inputs being either random variables or point values…your choice).
- Present results with some commentary about what the results ‘mean’ to you if you were required to make a decision based on this “risk analysis”
You will clearly define the problem that you are trying to address
You will then select which of the input variables you will treat as a random variable
The problem must be clearly defined for full credit in Part 1.You can choice to hold all other inputs as constant (point values) if you wish, and run the MCS with just this one variable as a random variable.
Part 2:You will use the Classical Method to define the Empirical Cumulative Distribution for a minimum of 4 judges
Part 3: run the MCS